A Billion Dollar Pause Button
Bravo, America! We have discovered a new method to spend $14 billion without launching a single product. The most recent federal shutdown may reduce fourth quarter GDP by as much as two percentage points, according to the Congressional Budget Office. That is correct: in the name of “fiscal responsibility,” agencies closed, hundreds of thousands of people went on furlough, and data pipelines were blocked in the U.S. economy.
Wall Street’s Favorite Excuse
For the securities industry, this isn’t ideology it’s just lost data. Growth slows, valuations wobble, and analysts stare at blank spreadsheets because the BLS isn’t publishing. Volatility becomes the only metric anyone can rely on. That same volatility turns to doubt.
When Government Stops, Compliance Pauses
Every shutdown halts assessments, approvals, and filings. IPOs sit idly by, deals delay, and regulatory updates disappear. Pretending not to care, the wave travels directly from Washington, D.C., to every trading desk.
Traders Flying Blind
Investors now price assets without GDP prints, inflation data, or Treasury reports. Every trade becomes a guessing game and the house (Washington) always wins.
Takeaway
Markets open at 9:30 even if the government is on holiday. The cost of gridlock is high, and this time the bill comes to $14 billion in GDP impact. Everyone pays more the longer Congress debates, even the traders who continue to maintain that “it is only temporary.”
